Forecasting, markets, podcasts, and other things I build on the side.
A forecasting aggregator for the IL-9 Democratic primary that synthesises prediction-market probabilities, polling averages, and FEC fundraising into a single daily estimate. Featured in Capitol Fax, the Evanston Roundtable, and the Daily Northwestern.
A politics-and-policy podcast I founded and host. Reaches listeners in 50+ countries. I produce, edit, and distribute every episode.
A political data and forecasting research partnership with a small group of student collaborators. We collect, model, and analyse political information, markets, and other miscellany at scale, turning noise into signal. The current project is WFPVI (the Whole Foods Partisan Voting Index), which estimates Cook PVI from the area of the triangle formed by the three closest Whole Foods stores: a smaller triangle implies a denser cluster, which tends to vote more Democratic.